Big Picture Update on Commodities and Precious Metals

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Some monthly charts of interest in the commodity sector, including precious metals.
CRB Index dwells below key resistance. A break of 200 would target around 250 in 2018.
CRB/SPX Ratio shows the utter devastation of the Goldilocks era of Central Bank inflation with no apparent consequences. This is not likely to last.
WTI Crude Oil sits below resistance at 62-63, with a target of 75.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 29 December 2017.


Record-Smashing 2017 Ends With Stock Slamfest – Bitcoin, Bonds, Bullion Best

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Ugly end…
But on the year, the dollar tanked (worst since 2003), stocks and bonds (the long-end) soared higher, commodities rebounded dramatically, cryptocurrencies exploded, and gold had its best year since 2010 as VIX saw its lowest average in history…
and all that driven by the biggest increase in central bank balance sheets since 2011… anyone else feel like this… (our estimate is we are at around the 30 second mark currently)

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Fri, 12/29/2017 –.


Santa’s Stock Market Rally: Tears of Joy, Or Just Tears?

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Everyone who believes risk has disappeared has fallen for the con.
One of the maxims of this site is: risk cannot be made to disappear, it can only be cloaked, hedged or offloaded onto others. In other words, when the magician makes the white rabbit disappear, the physical rabbit does not in fact vanish; it is merely transported out of sight of the enthralled audience. Judging by this year’s version of Santa Claus’s reliable year-end stock market rally, risk has vanished, not just in stocks but in bonds, junk bonds, housing, commercial real estate, collectible art–just about the entire spectrum of tradable assets (with precious metals and agricultural commodities among the few receiving coals rather than rallies). And so it is with risk in markets. Risk is now viewed as something that can be reliably sold as a more or less guaranteed source of easy profits. In the present-day perception that risk has been eradicated from the markets, it makes little sense to hedge against risk; hedging is a waste of capital when there’s no risk in sight.

This post was published at Charles Hugh Smith on WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2017.


3 Amigos Update

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I realize this theme could be wearing on some people, but with all the subtlety of a sledgehammer I am going to pound it until it either aborts or completes. It is, in my opinion, too important not to.
Amigo 1: Stock Market vs. Gold
The pattern that formed from 2015 to 2017 measures to 2.50. The 38% Fib retrace level just happens to be that as well. Interpretation: Bullish until the 2.50 area is reached, then major caution.
Amigo 2: 10yr & 30yr Interest Rates
10yr yield still in a posture to rise to the 2.9% target. A less ‘in the bag’ Amigo than his fellow above, but still intact. Interpretation: The inflation has been in stocks on this macro cycle. When the limiter is reached, either the inflation will morph into something more traditional and virulent (with commodities and precious metals taking over) or it will be cut off at the knees as deflation finally takes back all the debt used to inflate assets on this cycle.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 8 December 2017.