Big Picture Update on Commodities and Precious Metals

Some monthly charts of interest in the commodity sector, including precious metals.
CRB Index dwells below key resistance. A break of 200 would target around 250 in 2018.
CRB/SPX Ratio shows the utter devastation of the Goldilocks era of Central Bank inflation with no apparent consequences. This is not likely to last.
WTI Crude Oil sits below resistance at 62-63, with a target of 75.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 29 December 2017.


Record-Smashing 2017 Ends With Stock Slamfest – Bitcoin, Bonds, Bullion Best

Ugly end…
But on the year, the dollar tanked (worst since 2003), stocks and bonds (the long-end) soared higher, commodities rebounded dramatically, cryptocurrencies exploded, and gold had its best year since 2010 as VIX saw its lowest average in history…
and all that driven by the biggest increase in central bank balance sheets since 2011… anyone else feel like this… (our estimate is we are at around the 30 second mark currently)

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Fri, 12/29/2017 –.


Santa’s Stock Market Rally: Tears of Joy, Or Just Tears?

Everyone who believes risk has disappeared has fallen for the con.
One of the maxims of this site is: risk cannot be made to disappear, it can only be cloaked, hedged or offloaded onto others. In other words, when the magician makes the white rabbit disappear, the physical rabbit does not in fact vanish; it is merely transported out of sight of the enthralled audience. Judging by this year’s version of Santa Claus’s reliable year-end stock market rally, risk has vanished, not just in stocks but in bonds, junk bonds, housing, commercial real estate, collectible art–just about the entire spectrum of tradable assets (with precious metals and agricultural commodities among the few receiving coals rather than rallies). And so it is with risk in markets. Risk is now viewed as something that can be reliably sold as a more or less guaranteed source of easy profits. In the present-day perception that risk has been eradicated from the markets, it makes little sense to hedge against risk; hedging is a waste of capital when there’s no risk in sight.

This post was published at Charles Hugh Smith on WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2017.


3 Amigos Update

I realize this theme could be wearing on some people, but with all the subtlety of a sledgehammer I am going to pound it until it either aborts or completes. It is, in my opinion, too important not to.
Amigo 1: Stock Market vs. Gold
The pattern that formed from 2015 to 2017 measures to 2.50. The 38% Fib retrace level just happens to be that as well. Interpretation: Bullish until the 2.50 area is reached, then major caution.
Amigo 2: 10yr & 30yr Interest Rates
10yr yield still in a posture to rise to the 2.9% target. A less ‘in the bag’ Amigo than his fellow above, but still intact. Interpretation: The inflation has been in stocks on this macro cycle. When the limiter is reached, either the inflation will morph into something more traditional and virulent (with commodities and precious metals taking over) or it will be cut off at the knees as deflation finally takes back all the debt used to inflate assets on this cycle.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 8 December 2017.


Gold Market Charts – November

Gold Market Charts – November BullionStar’s monthly ‘Gold Market Charts’ articles examine recent developments in the world’s largest physical gold markets using graphical gold charts created by the GOLD CHARTS R US market chart website. The physical gold markets covered include India, China, Russia and Switzerland and where relevant, the COMEX gold futures vault inventories.
Note additionally that BullionStar’s website also hosts gold and silver price charts under the BullionStar Charts menu, which also allows you to chart currencies, commodities, stock indices and Bitcoin in terms of gold and other precious metals.
SGE Gold Withdrawals Physical gold withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) during October 2017 reached 151.54 tonnes. SGE gold withdrawals are a suitable proxy for Chinese wholesale gold demand due to the fact that nearly all gold supply in the Chinese gold market makes its way through the SGE vaulting network to be traded on the SGE’s gold trading platform.

This post was published at Bullion Star on 4 Dec 2017.


Gobble, Gobble: Thanksgiving Dinners Stuffed with Savings Despite Rising Fuel Costs

I spend a lot of time writing and talking about inflation, especially as it affects the price of gold, oil and other commodities and raw materials. The year-over-year percent change in the cost of living has been reasonably low for the past five years, averaging about 1.3 percent on a monthly basis. For commodities, the average change has been even lower at negative 0.9 percent, as measured by the producer price index (PPI). This hasn’t been too constructive for gold and oil producers, but it’s been a windfall for American consumers and manufacturers.
A helpful way to look at inflation is the changing cost of a typical Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people. For the second straight year, the cost actually declined from the previous year’s holiday, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). This year’s feast, including staples such as turkey, rolls, sweet potatoes and more, fell $0.75 to a five-year low of $49.12. On an inflation-adjusted basis, that’s down more than $10 from 30 years ago. The turkey alone cost about 1.6 percent less than last year.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Tuesday, 28 November 2017.


Commodities: The Big Three

Tonight I would like to show you some long term charts for the big three, Copper, Oil and Gold. There are a lot of similarities between them which is strongly suggesting all three should be in new bull markets. The laggard is gold which has still not confirmed its new bull market but is getting closer as you will see. The key will be what the US dollar has up its sleeves so lets start with a daily chart for the US dollar.
The US dollar still hasn’t totally broken down yet, but it did have a failed inverse H&S bottom. It was a very beautiful and symmetrical H&S bottom that looked like it was going to reverse the downtrend that is right at a year old now. It had a nice clean breakout above the neckline with a clean backtest from above. All looked good. After a brief rally the US dollar declined once more to the neckline, but this time the neckline failed to hold support, strongly suggesting the H&S bottom was failing.
As we’ve discussed in the past when you see a failed H&S pattern you often times see a strong move in the opposite direction. The rule of thumb is that when the price action breaks below the right shoulder low the failure is complete. The US dollar is still trading slightly above the right shoulder low, but is now getting close to breaking that important low. Note how the neckline reversed its role to what had been resistance during the formation of the H&S bottom, to support once broken to the upside, and then reversed its role one more time to resistance on the last backtest from below.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 26 November 2017.