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by necessity, making buy-and-sell trading decisions exclusively on momentum. Speculators’ herd futures dumping kicked off gold’s selloff. This first chart superimposes gold over specs’ total gold-futures long and short contracts held. These are reported weekly in the famous Commitments of Traders reports. Had the snowballing gold-futures selling by these hyper-leveraged traders not flared, gold would likely be back over $2,000 by now. But because of the extreme risks inherent in amplifying gold’s price action, heavy gold-futures selling often cascades.
You can see that a long, bullish potential inverse “head and shoulder” pattern has formed. If a breakout occurs, it would mean that the early 2016 low was a false downside breakout on a major (longer-term) scale. Such breakouts usually have very strong moves in the opposite direction, in this case upward. The chart below of the gold bullion price (monthly) is bullish. The bottom of the “cup” has been forming since early 2016.