“Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway
Don’t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There’s a battle outside and it is ragin’
It’ll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin’…
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is rapidly fadin’
And the first one now will later be last
For the times they are a-changin’.”
Bob Dylan, The Times They Are a-Changin’
“The only constant is change.”
Heraclitus
Let me start out by saying that in my estimation, about 95% of short term predictions are worthless from an actionable trading standpoint. In most businesses, short term is less than one year.
That is why so many jokers on Wall Street keep so busy rigging the game, and cutting down their forecasting window to microseconds. It is the only way that they can provide consistent returns – they cheat.
Oh yea, I know that some guys have cobbled together some remarkable runs in the short term, and then generally flame out at some point. I had a run at the blackjack tables in Vegas that had the dealers talking. It seems like everyone gets at least one night like that, they are just flat out golden and can’t seem to lose at the turn of the cards.
This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 28 DECEMBER 2017.