First published on Sunday Nov 19 for members: While I would love to believe that the rally we saw on Friday is the start of the next larger degree break out in the metals complex for which many have been eagerly awaiting, there are many signs that suggest it is only part of a corrective rally.
As I noted in my update last weekend:
‘But, please, do not assume we have struck a bottom and expect that we are now ready to break out simply because we see another rally begin in the coming weeks. The market still has a lot to prove to us, especially since the primary set up we now have on our charts suggest we can see prices that are lower than where we closed on Friday. But, again, I will certainly maintain an open mind depending upon how the next REAL rally takes shape.’
Now, the question that I still maintain in my mind is if this is even the ‘real rally’ that I have been looking for over the last few weeks. And, yes, I am still questioning it.
While my primary expectation has been looking for a larger b-wave rally to take shape in gold and silver, many of the stocks I track in the mining complex do not look ripe for the major break out to begin.
First, I want to focus on the metals. The attached 144-minute silver chart is quite representative of the ‘mess’ we have been experiencing in the metals of late. My primary expectation is that we should see a rally in the metals, but I am still not quite certain if we will see one more spike down before the larger b-wave rally I am expecting takes shape in earnest. Unfortunately, due to the messy structure of late in the charts, I have no high probability perspective that suggests we have begun that rally with the move on Friday. In fact, we still have potential for one more spike down before we are able to strike our targets overhead.
This post was published at GoldSeek on Friday, 24 November 2017.