With all due caveats about the non-stellar gold CoT data (we’ll update in #474) I wanted to note a constructive situation in gold vs. oil, which is a key sector fundamental consideration. Now, there is still a constructive situation in play for nominal crude oil, so take this post for perspective more than anything.
Pardon the massive charts (click to expand) but I am going to start using these personally so that I can fully take into account the historical market aspects that go further back on a daily chart. They just don’t present as well at the website, unless clicked. So I’ll mostly use the smaller, clearer charts for public consumption.
Au/WTI bottomed in December of 2016 as the sector bottomed that same month. The first positive signal was a rise above the daily EMA 10. That is what Au/WTI did this week (until today, as it pulls back below the EMA 10, in-day). Pullbacks will happen even if this is a successful bottoming process. The relative downside volume into an oversold RSI (14) and even higher upside relative volume out of the oversold reading is interesting.
This post was published at GoldSeek on 19 November 2017.