Commodities: The Big Three

Tonight I would like to show you some long term charts for the big three, Copper, Oil and Gold. There are a lot of similarities between them which is strongly suggesting all three should be in new bull markets. The laggard is gold which has still not confirmed its new bull market but is getting closer as you will see. The key will be what the US dollar has up its sleeves so lets start with a daily chart for the US dollar.
The US dollar still hasn’t totally broken down yet, but it did have a failed inverse H&S bottom. It was a very beautiful and symmetrical H&S bottom that looked like it was going to reverse the downtrend that is right at a year old now. It had a nice clean breakout above the neckline with a clean backtest from above. All looked good. After a brief rally the US dollar declined once more to the neckline, but this time the neckline failed to hold support, strongly suggesting the H&S bottom was failing.
As we’ve discussed in the past when you see a failed H&S pattern you often times see a strong move in the opposite direction. The rule of thumb is that when the price action breaks below the right shoulder low the failure is complete. The US dollar is still trading slightly above the right shoulder low, but is now getting close to breaking that important low. Note how the neckline reversed its role to what had been resistance during the formation of the H&S bottom, to support once broken to the upside, and then reversed its role one more time to resistance on the last backtest from below.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 26 November 2017.


BRICS Gold Trade Settlement To Begin in 2018?

My guess is it will take Russia and China and the other BRICS nations most of 2018 to get all the nuances worked out and the gold trade settlement contracts will not actually come to the table until 2019 or possibly even 2020. We say this in light of what happened with the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) bringing their gold settlement mechanism online back in April 2016. The SGE was suppose to bring this online in October 2015 but was unable to make it happen as they wished to avoid any major mishaps when launching. Anyone that has dealt with the launch of a new computer system or an ‘upgrade’ to a computer system understands there are usually massive problems to begin with as going from a virtual world to real world can sometimes be quiet different than originally anticipated.
We have been reluctantly reporting on the ‘gold backed oil contract’ supposedly coming out of China sometime in the future. We can say with 100% certainty there will be a yuan backed oil contract launched in the very near future, as that has been officially announced and an actual contract exist. The gold backed portion is still a little sketchy at this point as there has been no official announcement, no Chinese official discussing nor does any contract exist that is tied to the yuan backed oil contract.
What we just learned ‘First Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Central Bank Sergey Shvetsov said Friday’, Russia and China are discussing a ‘single (system of) gold trade both within BRICS and at the level of bilateral contacts,’
Is this the reason for the two recent attempts at beating gold down the line? Neither attempt, in my opinion, was very successful except in the very, very short term as both attempts were greeted with equal amount of contracts on the acquiring side of the trade. The gold bugs were waiting to pull the trigger on these smashes and as soon as the gold chart dropped it reversed and most of the ‘losses’ were regained within 48 hours or less.


This post was published at GoldSeek on Sunday, 26 November 2017.


Next Time You Talk to a Gold Bear, Show Them These Charts

If you look at gold’s performance over the last few months, or even quarters, it would be hard to feel much excitement.
Stocks are near all-time highs, oil is roaring back, and Bitcoin has blasted off.
Meanwhile, gold sentiment is negative.
Getting almost anyone excited about gold seems like a monumental task; it appears to be stuck in a trading range that’s going nowhere fast.
Unless you’re looking at what I’m looking at right here…
From Around the World, the View Couldn’t Be Better
Traders and investors obsessing and, inevitably, fretting, over gold’s performance at yearly or quarterly timescales, like in the chart below, simply aren’t looking in the right place.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on November 22, 2017.


Asian Metals Market Update: November-22-2017

It will be a technical trade today and till Monday. Moves will be big and two way. Investors will not be able to sleep on their investments. It should be a day trader’s paradise till Monday. Copper, industrial metals and crude oil are looking bullish at the moment. Gold and silver are in anything can happen zone. Short term hot money is still into bitcoin and crypto currencies.
I read a lot of media concerns over the continued rise in bitcoin and crypto currencies. Asia is not a major contributor to the current rally in crypto’s.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 22 November 2017.


Using Gold to See Where the Dollar Will Move Next

I’ve written a lot about how the US dollar is the fulcrum of the global financial system.
Commodities are priced in dollars. Global trade is done in dollars. And the majority of international funding is in USD.
The dollar is important. Dollar trends impact markets and assets around the world in various ways. Hence why the dollar is the fulcrum.
But if the dollar is the fulcrum then gold is the foundation on which that fulcrum sits
I should make clear, I’m no gold bug and have no special affinity for the yellow metal.
But when it comes to analyzing assets and markets we run into a measurement problem. That measurement problem is due to the fact that things that are priced in US dollars, or any currency, fluctuate according to the price of the currency in addition to the good’s underlying supply and demand fundamentals (ie, the price of oil is impacted by the relative price of a US dollar).

This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/22/2017.


On The West’s Demise To The Sidelines Of History…

The world is changing, but the west is clinging on to a unipolar vision of the world that has passed. It’s attempts to discard this changing reality in exchange for a western worldview expressed in their politics and media are so ungrounded, it’s comical as it is dangerous. This western bubble of reality laid down before the wests general public seems to hold up for now, although fragile and less and less by the day. Really, Russia again? Outside this western bubble however, credibility is lost daily as the west places itself on the sidelines of history.
The fundamental building blocs in western hard power and soft power are not under attack as the mediapolitical landscape could make us feel they are, it is more that they are revealed for what they are without the sugarcoating. As the multipolar world creates the political and economic power to pursuit alternatives and show new perspectives and interpretations, they now have the power to reflect the actions of the west mirrored back upon themselves as apposed to ‘just the way things are’ in the world.
Suddenly we are presented with another version of reality that also begs for a different version of history for the past decades. Our economic system seems to benefit the few as those few have a well managed grip on politics. Local business and craftsmanship, the real economy, have given way to the privileged multinationals and the financial world, the world of tax breaks and tax havens.
Whilst the real economy is breaking down, the central banks were printing money like never before to keep the banks and the familiar names afloat -so long as the Apple’s and Facebook’s and other household names keep the indices up, all is good. At the root of this infinite printing of money lies of course the petrodollar. The 1973 deal with Saudi-Arabia where the US would support the house of Saud so long as OPEC would sell all oil in US dollars only and buy US bonds, creating an immense need for dollars in the world and preventing inflation as the Federal Reserves printing presses make way for the economic, political and military US might since. Since, the whole international trade system has been dollar based. If Bolivia wants to sell logs to Venezuela, it will still use dollars. And by US law, every dollar has to be cleared by the bank of New York, thus making this transaction subject to US law. And don’t you dare circumvent it. Blocking Iran from the dollar-trade for not selling oil in dollars, and thus blocking it from the swift-system, and thus from world trade, was therefore the nuclear bomb in economics. Their currency devalued 50%. The earlier threats to the petrodollar -Libia selling oil for gold, Iraq for euro’s- have been met with heavy resistance. Now, in Syria, it seems the world has changed. The predominantly Saudi-US creation of ISIS to destabilize the nations of Iraq and Syria into chaos has now failed. Could we again see Syria, Iraq and Iran work together to create the Friendship Pipeline (a.k.a. the Islamic Pipeline in the west), exporting oil from Iran to Europe? Or will it be more of the same political-economic-monetary-military export of the west, with freedom, democracy and human rights as it’s sugarcoating?

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 20, 2017.


Asian Metals Market Update: November-20-2017

I have seen very big moves in global financial markets in ‘Thanksgiving week’. I will be cautious this week. Silver gets the best week to rise and zoom. I expect short covering with every rise in gold prices. Speculation that some hedge funds are exiting crude oil long positions is preventing the rise. A strong US economy implies more guzzle for fuel during holidays.
Crude oil is not falling due to the crisis in Saudi Arabia. There is media speculation that developments in Saudi Arabia can result in crude oil prices doubling over a period of time. Further chances of US dollar dumping by Opec is also catching investors. Bitcoin and crypto currencies are now the future means exchange. Paper currencies are now the past. Americans will control the crypto currencies in the near future but their grip will not be the same as that of the US dollar. Gold will be the only key means of exchange between central bankers and large investors.
The political crisis in Germany should also be bullish for gold. The German chancellor declaring its failure to form a government can put the Eurozone into further crisis. Currency markets will be very volatile and will be dependent (too a large extent) on the political scene in Germany.

This post was published at GoldSeek on November 20, 2017.


Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom

With all due caveats about the non-stellar gold CoT data (we’ll update in #474) I wanted to note a constructive situation in gold vs. oil, which is a key sector fundamental consideration. Now, there is still a constructive situation in play for nominal crude oil, so take this post for perspective more than anything.
Pardon the massive charts (click to expand) but I am going to start using these personally so that I can fully take into account the historical market aspects that go further back on a daily chart. They just don’t present as well at the website, unless clicked. So I’ll mostly use the smaller, clearer charts for public consumption.
Au/WTI bottomed in December of 2016 as the sector bottomed that same month. The first positive signal was a rise above the daily EMA 10. That is what Au/WTI did this week (until today, as it pulls back below the EMA 10, in-day). Pullbacks will happen even if this is a successful bottoming process. The relative downside volume into an oversold RSI (14) and even higher upside relative volume out of the oversold reading is interesting.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 19 November 2017.


Norway’s $1 Trillion Wealth Fund Suddenly Considers Dumping $35 Billion Of Oil And Gas Stocks

One of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, and one which ironically amassed the overwhelming majority of their wealth via rich oil reserves, is now looking to sell off some $35 billion worth of energy stocks. According to central bank Deputy Governor Egil Matsen, the move is intended simply to “spread the risks for the state’s wealth,” but one has to wonder whether the owner of 1.5% of the world’s stocks has decided that oil has now moved into a period of secular decline. Per Bloomberg:
Norway’s $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund proposed dumping about $35 billion in oil and gas stocks, including Royal Dutch Shell Plc andExxon Mobil Corp., to protect the economy of western Europe’s biggest petroleum producer.
The nation will be ‘less vulnerable’ to a drop in oil by not being invested in stocks of companies in the industry, the Oslo-based fund said Thursday. The Finance Ministry said it would study the plan and decide at the earliest in ‘autumn 2018.’
‘Our perspective here is to spread the risks for the state’s wealth,’ Egil Matsen, the deputy governor at the central bank in charge of overseeing the fund, said in an interview in Oslo Thursday. ‘We can do that better by not adding oil price risk through the fund.’
While the fund says the plan isn’t based on any view on the future of oil prices or the industry, it will likely add pressure on oil producers, already struggling in a world where renewable energy is gaining sway.
In light of this news, here is a list of Norway’s 10 largest energy holdings (valuesin NOK) that you should probably look to lighten up on at some point before they do.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 16, 2017.