Asian Metals Market Update: December-11-2017

The trend of global financial markets after the FOMC meet will be interesting. Bitcoin futures has started at CBOT. The CME will start BTC futures next week. The world is attracted to bitcoin and crypto currencies. It remains to be seen how negatively the ever rising trading volumes in BTC/crypto currencies affect stock markets and bond markets globally.
Gold it seems is more of a central bank play. More and more non NATO allies’ nations are continuously increasing their physical gold reserves. Nations like India are promoting gold buying in electronic form which involves physical gold only when the buyer takes delivery. Ninety percent of the physical buyers of gold in India in electronic form will not take delivery at least for a period of one year. Indian gold demand will be steady but not zoom next year. Fundamentals will be the key. Gold is bullish for an investment period over twelve months. Long term gold investors need not worry.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 11 December 2017.


Gold Market Charts – November

Gold Market Charts – November BullionStar’s monthly ‘Gold Market Charts’ articles examine recent developments in the world’s largest physical gold markets using graphical gold charts created by the GOLD CHARTS R US market chart website. The physical gold markets covered include India, China, Russia and Switzerland and where relevant, the COMEX gold futures vault inventories.
Note additionally that BullionStar’s website also hosts gold and silver price charts under the BullionStar Charts menu, which also allows you to chart currencies, commodities, stock indices and Bitcoin in terms of gold and other precious metals.
SGE Gold Withdrawals Physical gold withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) during October 2017 reached 151.54 tonnes. SGE gold withdrawals are a suitable proxy for Chinese wholesale gold demand due to the fact that nearly all gold supply in the Chinese gold market makes its way through the SGE vaulting network to be traded on the SGE’s gold trading platform.

This post was published at Bullion Star on 4 Dec 2017.


Russia, China and BRICS: A New Gold Trading Network

One of the most notable events in Russia’s precious metals market calendar is the annual ‘Russian Bullion Market’ conference. Formerly known as the Russian Bullion Awards, this conference, now in its 10th year, took place this year on Friday 24 November in Moscow. Among the speakers lined up, the most notable inclusion was probably Sergey Shvetsov, First Deputy Chairman of Russia’s central bank, the Bank of Russia.
In his speech, Shvetsov provided an update on an important development involving the Russian central bank in the worldwide gold market, and gave further insight into the continued importance of physical gold to the long term economic and strategic interests of the Russian Federation.
Firstly, in his speech Shvetsov confirmed that the BRICS group of countries are now in discussions to establish their own gold trading system. As a reminder, the 5 BRICS countries comprise the Russian Federation, China, India, South Africa and Brazil.
Four of these nations are among the world’s major gold producers, namely, China, Russia, South Africa and Brazil. Furthermore, two of these nations are the world’s two largest importers and consumers of physical gold, namely, China and Russia. So what these economies have in common is that they all major players in the global physical gold market.

This post was published at Bullion Star on 2 Dec 2017.


Gold’s Global Supply Artery: Heading for Cardiac Arrest

An oceanic-scale demand push from “all parts Far East” is building, as the desire to own gold and silver promises to place an increasingly solid foundation for years to come.
China, India, and Southeast Asia have historically accumulated precious metal as a savings vehicle, a hedge against political uncertainty (e.g. India’s surprise call-in last year of 80% of the country’s paper currency), and as an expression of affection. China’s newly-emerging affluent middle class alone is set to become larger than the population of the U. S. Frank Holmes collectively refers to these elements as “love and fear trades”.
China’s One Belt-One Road (OBOR) Initiative – the world’s largest-ever construction project – is designed to link 60% of the world’s population in a cooperative financial and economic matrix. Taken together, the continued migration of gold supply from West to East is baked into the cake.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Tuesday, 28 November 2017.


Tactics For The Gold Bull Era

Gold surged higher on Friday. Then it gave all the gains back yesterday. Looking beyond this short term noise, gold is not an exciting market right now. What could make that change? Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Gold is trading in a rough sideways trend with an upside bias. This bias continues to strengthen, albeit very slowly. The technical action reflects the fundamentals and liquidity flows and clearly, patience. On that note, please click here now. I jokingly refer to the SPDR fund as ‘Spider Man’. Chindian demand is decent, but Spider Man looks like he’s caught in his own web; while there’s no significant selling, buying has come to a standstill. If Chindian demand is solid, gold doesn’t really need a lot of Western fear trade buying to move higher, but it must have some. That’s just not happening right now. The winds of change may be in the air, with US wage inflation pressures intensifying, an approaching debt ceiling debate, and a new Fed chair who stands ready to significantly reduce bank regulation. Without a bull cycle in money velocity, gold stocks and silver stocks will have a very hard time outperforming bullion on a consistent basis. The good news: these winds of change (especially the small bank deregulation favoured by Fed chair Powell) mean there is a very high probability that US money velocity ends its two decade bear market in 2018.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Tuesday, 21 November 2017.


SWOT Analysis: Gold Bounced Back After Attempts to Knock Down Price

Strengths
The best performing precious metal for the week was silver, up 2.53 percent. It has lagged behind the other precious metals this year and speculators have raised their net long position this week. Gold bounced back positively after several attempts to knock down the price. Last Friday, over 4 million ounces of gold changed hands within minutes. Then, this past Tuesday, more than 2 million ounces changed hands, spurring a price drop. Bullish investors responded two hours later with a surge in buying to help boost prices. Lawrie Williams writes that the attempt to lower gold prices mentioned above reflects positively for those who consider gold to still be in a bull market. Ray Dalio of Bridgewater went on a gold-buying spree to increase his holdings by 575 percent and enter the gold ETF space. Perhaps buyers following Dalio’s lead are using these sell-offs to pick their entry spots. Weaknesses
The worst performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up just 0.05 percent for the week. ‘Palladium prices could plunge 90 percent by 2040 as cars become electric,’ reported ABN Amro. According to Reuters India, gold prices flipped to discount as wedding demand for the yellow metal were lower than expected. Additionally, the Federal funds futures show a possible rate increase in December at 92 percent.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 20 November 2017.


Asian Metals Market Update: November-17-2017

Gold and silver are steady on increasing chances of the passage of the US tax cut bill. Resurgence in bitcoins and other crypto currencies is preventing investment interest in bullion. Short term hot money has moved to cryptos from bullion. The price moves in gold and silver are mainly dependent on physical demand and physical premiums in Asia.
In India I see more and more retail trading volumes in Industrial metals than gold and silver. This year’s rise in industrial metals has attracted brokers, retail traders and everyone alike. Aluminum was untouchable a few years ago and has attracted good trading volumes. Nickel’s recent breakout has also resulted more numbers of daily traders. Some of the head core silver traders have moved to industrial metals as it gives more profits than silver. A word of caution to industrial metal traders. The rise in industrial metals has been mainly on expectation that the global switch to electric vehicles can result in a long term shortage. But in my view traditional auto makers are making their vehicles more fuel efficient buy making engines from Aluminum instead of cast iron. The global switch to electric transport may not happen overnight. A sharp correction in industrial metals can happen anytime. Nickel has seen a very sharp correction over the past seven days. Other industrial metals could follow Nickel soon.
Traders will start taking positions for the first week of December from now. Geopolitical risk and political instability in the UK and some Eastern European nations can cause furor. Economic data releases from anywhere in the world will affect markets if and only if they indicate a slow down next year.

This post was published at GoldSeek on November-17-2017.


Is a December Rate Hike Necessarily Bad News for Gold?

Conventional wisdom holds that an interest rate hike in December will be bad for gold.
But will it?
There is actually evidence the opposite could be true.
Higher interest rates generally boost the dollar. This puts downward pressure on the price of gold. So, one would expect a rate hike to cause gold to tank. But over the last two years, the opposite has happened. In fact, we have seen double-digit increases in the price of gold after rate hikes.
So what gives?
The biggest factor is that we generally know the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates long before it actually acts. We’ve heard talk of a December rate hike since July. In fact, analysts say the likelihood of a quarter point December hike stands at 97%.
So, with several months to anticipate a hike, it is generally already baked into the price of gold by the time it happens. The market has been factoring it in all along. The Economic Times of India provides a succinct explanation of what has happened over the last two years.

This post was published at Schiffgold on NOVEMBER 17, 2017.