Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – The Willful Mispricing of Risk

Today was a stock options expiry.
Gold and silver rallied smartly, back up to the levels where they roughly were before they were bushwhacked on the Comex into the FOMC meeting and Non-Farm Payrolls boogie woogie.
I guess the theory that this smackdown of gold to retest 1270 earlier this week was a gambit ahead of stock option expiry was tradeable.
We are in a new era. I am hearing this on TV and in comments and on chat forums.
We are in an era where risk has been abolished by the central banks and their free money. So there is little difference between prime and subprime, between 2 year and 10 year Treasuries, and between stocks and bonds.
According to some of the Pied Piper pundits stocks are better than riskless cash, because stocks are going to keep rallying forever after, and cash is trash. Buy buy buy, and don’t be left behind.
This is the kind of mantra that the sell-side and the wiseguys of the Street too often resort to when they are taking profits from their pool after a big price run higher, and unloading mispriced junk on mom and pop, through the funds and institutions.
Once the selling starts in earnest, and it will beyond any doubt at some point, by whatever event that may happen to trigger it, this is going to get ugly very quickly. But this is the system that we have today. This will be the third bubble and bust since the repeal of Glass-Steagall, one of the highest funded PR and political campaigns in modern history.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 17 NOVEMBER 2017.


Global Silver Investment Demand Maybe Down, But Still Double Pre-2008 Market Crash Level

While physical silver investment demand experienced a pronounced decline this year, the volume is still much larger than the level prior to the 2008 U. S. Housing and Banking Crash. Investors frustrated by a silver market plagued with lousy sentiment and weak demand, may not realize that silver bar and coin demand is projected to be double what it was in 2007.
Thus, long-term precious metals investors continue to acquire silver on price dips while others may be selling out and placing their bets into the bubble stock market or cryptocurrencies. It’s not the larger precious metals investor who is worried about the short-term price, rather its the smaller investor.
Regardless, according to the Silver Institute’s 2017 Interim Report, global silver bar and coin demand are projected to fall to 130 million oz (Moz) in 2017 compared to 206 Moz last year. Even though physical silver investment demand will drop by 37% this year, it will still be more than double the 62 Moz in 2007:

This post was published at SRSrocco Report on NOVEMBER 17, 2017.


NOV 17/GOLD HAS A HUGE DAY UP $16.60 AND SILVER SURPASSES THE KEY $17.25 MARK/FBI INFORMANT CAMPBELL WILL BE TESTIFYING BEFORE CONGRESS NEXT WEEK/

GOLD: $1295.10 UP $16.60
Silver: $17.33 UP 24 cents
Closing access prices:
Gold $1294.10
silver: $17.31`
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1290.19 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1282.60
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $7.59
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1288.82
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1282.40
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$6.42

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 17, 2017.


Gold Miners’ Q3’17 Fundamentals

The gold miners’ stocks have spent months adrift, cast off in the long shadow of the Trumphoria stock-market rally. This vexing consolidation has left a wasteland of popular bearishness. But once a quarter earnings season arrives, bright fundamental sunlight dispelling the obscuring sentiment fogs. The major gold miners’ just-reported Q3’17 results prove this sector remains strong fundamentally, and super-undervalued.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
The world’s major gold miners just wrapped up their third-quarter earnings season. After spending decades intensely studying and actively trading this contrarian sector, there’s no gold-stock data I look forward to more than the miners’ quarterly financial and operational reports. They offer a true and clear snapshot of what’s really going on, shattering the misconceptions bred by ever-shifting winds of sentiment.
The definitive list of major gold-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular gold-stock investment vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Its composition and performance are similar to the benchmark HUI gold-stock index. GDX utterly dominates this sector, with no meaningful competition. This week GDX’s net assets are 23.2x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!
Being included in GDX is the gold standard for gold miners, requiring deep analysis and vetting by elite analysts. And due to ETF investing eclipsing individual-stock investing, major-ETF inclusion is one of the most-important considerations for picking great gold stocks. As the vast pools of fund capital flow into leading ETFs, these ETFs in turn buy shares in their underlying companies bidding their stock prices higher.

This post was published at ZEAL LLC on November 17, 2017.


Fun on Friday: Louis Vuitton Handbags Murdered to Make Gold Toilet

At SchiffGold, we pride ourselves on being a full-service precious metals dealer, and my Fun on Friday column is no exception. I want to make sure I’m providing you all the information you need. So, do you remember the previous Fun on Friday post when I told you how you can turn your next dinner party into a roaring success by making your guests poop gold?
Well, I’ve found just the thing you need to round out the experience.
If your guests are going to poop gold, they should do it on a $100,000 gold-plated toilet made out of Louis Vuitton bags.
Artist Illma Gore is the creator of this lavish loo. She made the thing out of 24 Louis Vuitton bags valued at around $15,000. The bowl is plated in gold, and the toilet is fully functioning. Gore says it’s never been used, but ‘many have offered.’
You might recognize the artist’s name. She’s the chick who painted a nude portrait of Donald Trump that went viral during the presidential campaign. That got her a punch in the face by an outraged Trump supporter. I was thinking about including a picture of the portrait, but let’s be honest – you don’t want to see that. (But if you do, just click here. I don’t recommend it. But like I said – full service.)

This post was published at Schiffgold on NOVEMBER 17, 2017.


Gold Price Hits 5-Month Aussie High as No.2 Mine Output Forecast to Halve in 40 Years

Gold price gains of 0.5% from last Friday’s finish held firm in London trade today as world stock markets recovered more of this week’s drop and commodities also rallied after falling from their recent multi-year highs.
Gold held at $1282, some $5 per ounce below Wednesday’s attempt at 4-week highs versus the US Dollar.
This week’s drop in the Dollar’s exchange rate against Euros and Yen edged gold prices down 0.5% and 0.2% for European and Japanese investors respectively.
The UK gold price in Pounds per ounce today traded 0.5% higher for the week at 971 as Minister for Exiting the European Union David Davis said he’s made “compromises” with EU negotiators.
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar vowed to block talks on a post-Brexit trade deal if London doesn’t explain its plans for the border between Eire and Ulster.
Major gold producers Canada and Australia meantime saw gold prices rise sharply this week as their ‘commodity’ currencies weakened, up 1.1% and 2.1% respectively to 2-week and 5-month highs.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/17/2017.


The Metals Market Is A Mess And Will Likely Continue To Frustrate You

First published on Sunday Nov 12 for members: When I sat down to review how I can update the analysis I provided to our members in my mid-week update, I realized that there is not much more technical analysis I am able to add to what I wrote to our membership in my mid-week analysis, so I am going to repeat it here, with some additional general thoughts below:
While I strive to provide deep insight into the markets I track for you, I am somewhat at a loss in this region with the metals, especially with the various charts presenting quite differently.
For those that have followed me for years, you know when I am bullish and you know when I am bearish. And, for the great majority of the time, my bullishness and bearishness have been appropriate to prepare for impending price action. However, we are now in a region of uncertainty, and I don’t think I can classify it any better than that at this point in time.
In starting with silver, we had a wonderful i-ii set up in the (c) wave of the b-wave higher, as I had been presenting over the last week. However, the action we have seen this week has stalled and overlapped enough to make this potential much more cloudy now. While we may still move higher within an ending diagonal, the overall structure has become much more messy. And, as long as we remain over 16.30, I can still maintain this count, even if we see a more protracted (b) wave.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Friday, 17 November 2017.


Rickards On Gold, Interest Rates, & Super-Cycles

When the Fed raised interest rates last December, many believed gold would plunge. But it didn’t happen.
***
Gold bottomed the day after the rate hike, but then started moving higher again.
Incidentally, the same thing happened after the Fed tightened in December 2015. Gold had one of its best quarters in 20 years in the first quarter of 2016. So it was very interesting to see gold going up despite headwinds from the Fed.
Meanwhile, gold has more than held its own this year.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 16, 2017.